Editing Strategizing (section)

=== Theory of Change Statement ===
{{Historical box|Theory of Change is best oriented towards evaluators (funders) rather than directly used for strategic planning}}A theory of change statement is a tool to understand our strategy and how (or if) it will work. Writing out a theory of change statement is an opportunity to expose weak assumptions, and can be a useful tool to compare several possible strategies for achieving the same goal. It can also force refinement and tough conversations: being able to put your strategy into words requires you to understand it well. The process of coming to a consensus amongst your leadership team on a theory of change statement ensures that everyone is in agreement on what strategy is being pursued and why.

A theory of change statement uses this format:<blockquote>If we do (STRATEGY)

then (STRATEGIC GOAL)

Because (ASSUMPTION)</blockquote>In the Montgomery Bus Boycott example from earlier in this section, the theory of change could be written like this:<blockquote>'''''If''' we put financial pressure on the bus company'' 

'''''then''' the bus company will desegregate the buses''

'''''because''' the bus company values profit more than their racist values.''</blockquote>The strategy is to put financial pressure on the bus company, with the goal of desegregating the buses. The “because” portion of the statement, that the bus company values profit over their racist values, is the '''assumption that has to be true for the strategy to work'''. When we draft a theory of change statement, the “because” portion of the statement is an opportunity to expose the weak points in our strategy. If the weakest assumption in our strategy seems true, then we have a pretty good chance of succeeding.

A theory of change is just that, a theory. It is a hypothesis about how we will achieve the change we want. We then test our theory of change by implementing it through tactics, which we will cover in the Taking Action section.